Tag: I15

A MODEL FOR THE JOB DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BASED ON TIME SERIES

Zhanna PETUKHOVA

Professor, Department of Economics, Management and Organization of Production, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

zh-petukhova@ust-hk.com.cn

Mikhail PETUKHOV

Associate Professor, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

mpetukhov@nanyang-uni.com

Igor BELYAEV

Senior Lecturer, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

 belyaev@lund-univer.eu

Lyudmila BODRYAKOVA

Associate Professor, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

 ln-bodryakova@lund-univer.eu

Abstract

The Russian Federation is the largest country in the world, whose territory includes the Arctic regions. The area of the land territories of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is approximately 3.700,000 km2. The population of the Arctic Zone of Russia is approximately 7 million people, which is equal to 5% of the population of the entire Russian Federation. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyse regression models for predicting the time series of the number of jobs in the labour market of the Russian Federation, to select an adequate model characterised by a minimum average relative error and a maximum lead time, or to select several adequate models for different forecasting periods: short-term, medium-term and long-term. The study examines the possibilities of predicting the situation in the labour market of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation, the demand for specialists in various industries using regression models for forecasting a time series. The simulation was performed using the Statistica software. As a result of the conducted studies, adequate forecasting models were obtained in the time period from 01.01.2020 to 01.01.2021, taking into account the epidemiological situation in the country. Thus, the best model with the smallest error was determined.

Keywords: labour market, regression models, education, autocorrelation function, autoregression.

JEL classification: I15, J11, J01

 pp. 291-298

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DOES ZAKAT MATTER FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT? AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

I.K. Balyanda AKMAL

Postgraduate Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Indonesia

balyanda@gmail.com

M. Shabri Abd. MAJID

Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Indonesia

Corresponding author

mshabri@unsyiah.ac.id

Eddy GUNAWAN

Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Indonesia

egunawan@unsyiah.ac.id

Abstract

This study aims to empirically measure and analyze the contribution zakat to human development and, consequently towards the achievement of the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) program in Indonesia. Specifically, this study intends to measure the differences in the Human Development Index (HDI) of zakat recipients before and after receiving zakat and measure the effect of zakat on the HDI and its components. The response to these issues, the study estimates the value of the Human Development Index (HDI) at a minor level; the individual and household levels. 100 recipients of zakat (mustahik) from the three programs of zakat distribution by the zakat institution of Aceh Province, Indonesia (Baitul Mal Aceh – BMA) were selected as the sample of the study using a combination of purposive and proportionate stratified random samplings. These zakat programs include zakat for cancer and thalassemia patients, zakat for one family one undergraduate scholarship, and zakat for buying working capital for the poor families. The paired t-test is adopted to assess the differences in HDI of zakat recipients before and after receiving zakat, while the multiple linear regression is used to measure the effect of zakat on the HDI and its components. The study found that, after receiving zakat, the HDI of zakat recipients is higher than before. Zakat is also recorded to have a significant positive effect on the HDI, while the family size affected negatively the HDI and the types of zakat and profession of zakat recipients have an insignificant effect on the HDI. These findings suggest the positive role of zakat in improving human development and it could be used as one of the instruments to accelerate the achievement of the SDGs agenda in Indonesia.

Keywords: Education, Health, Human Development, Welfare, Zakat

JEL classification: D64, O15, Q01, I15, I25, I38

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