Tag: Convergence

IS STABILITY FOR REGIONAL DISPARITIES OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES TRULY MYSTERIOUS? AN ANALYSIS FROM STATISTICAL APPROACH

Tsunetada HIROBE

Professor, Department of Economics, Meikai University, 1 Akemi, Urayasu, Chiba 279-8550, Japan

tsune@meikai.ac.jp

Abstract

The paper analyzes the peculiar phenomenon of regional disparities brought by the changes in the geographical distribution of US unemployment rates. Specifically, we investigate the characteristics concerning the gap of that regional distribution especially focusing upon the statistical analysis by mainly an exploratory way.　Reduction in disparities or Expansion in disparities usually involves reducing or increasing the overall level of distribution, and the so-called relative disparity between all states of the U.S. shows an extremely stable transition of distribution within a certain range. This is a mysterious phenomenon that is also shown in any other country in the world. One of the reasons that the regional distribution of unemployment rates becomes stable is derived from the robustness of that geographical distribution; this is one of the reasons that the unemployment rate does not fluctuate significantly. Even if that robustness deteriorates for some reason, then the unemployment rate updates the values of minimum and maximum, or only just the range of variation expands; the relative disparities between regions tend to be offset by increases or decreases in the same direction as a result. Since that range is usually very limited, the gap frequently fluctuates up and down within a confined extent and it does not necessarily converge or diverge to a specific point; it would constantly change within the allowable fluctuation range depending on the socio-economic situation.

Keywords: unemployment rate, regional disparity, convergence, equilibrium, stability

JEL classification: C13, C15, J69, R12, R19

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ASSESSMENT AND MECHANISM OF REGULATING INTER-REGIONAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIATION (CASE STUDY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION)

Elena GUBANOVA

Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Head of the Finance and Credit Department, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “Vologda State University”, Russia

gubanova_elena@mail.ru

Nikolai VOROSHILOV

Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Research Associate of the Sector for Research in the Effectiveness of Management of Socio-Economic Systems of the Department for Issues of Socio-Economic Development and Management in Territorial Systems, Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science “Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, Russia

niks789@yandex.ru

Abstract

The existence of significant differences in the levels of socio-economic development of Russian regions and the need to determine state impact methods aimed at reducing inequality indicate the existence of territorial differentiation; this is the problem the article authors address. The paper proposes a methodological approach to the assessment of inter-regional differentiation, which helps solve a set of inter-related tasks on the basis of the data of state statistics and expert surveys. To assess the extent and size of territorial inequalities, the variation and Theil indices are used. The correlation and regression analysis discloses a trend to reduce differences among Russian regions in 2005-2017. On the basis of the author’s method, the integral index (aggregating 22 private indicators) is calculated; on its basis, RF subjects are grouped according to a socio-economic development level. The complexity and scale of the differentiation problem is emphasized by the fact that at the end of 2017, 43 subjects belong to the groups with below average and low development levels. The work identifies “backward regions” (18) and “regions with a sign of depression” (13), which should become a priority object of the federal regional policy. The analysis proves the hypothesis about weak influence of the state policy tools of regional development in Russia on processes of territorial development and confirms reduction in the scale and consequences of differentiation. The authors propose a conceptual scheme of the mechanism to manage the process of reducing inter-regional differentiation and overcoming its consequences, which can be used when implementing the Strategy for Spatial Development of the Russian Federation and other strategic planning documents. The results can be used by federal authorities to improve methods and tools for implementing the state policy of regional development, as well as serve as the basis for further research on this topic.

Keywords: Russian Federation, region (RF subject), inter-regional differentiation, gross regional product, convergence.

JEL classification: R1, R5
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SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON REGIONAL GROWTH IN IRAN (2006-16)

Shekoofeh FARAHMAND

Associate Professor, Economics Department, University of Isfahan, Iran

sh.farahmand@ase.ui.ac.ir

Narges GHASEMIAN

Ph.D candidate of economics, Alzahra University of Tehran, Iran

N.Ghasemian@alzahra.ac.ir

Abstract

One of the most important applications of economic growth models is for regional economic growth. In regional growth studies, it is necessary to consider spatial effects because of spatial dependence among the growth rates of regions. This research investigates the impact between net migration and its spatial lag on regional growth, based on the neoclassical (Solow) growth model. The used model in the study is the Dynamic Panel Data (DPD) which has been specified as a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and estimated by the spatial generalized method of moments (SGMM). The specified model has been tested for the 30 provinces of Iran in the period of 2006-16. The estimated results show that the time-lagged dependent variable had a positive and highly significant effect on income per capita. The impact of initial income per capita on growth is negative, and the convergence hypothesis is thus accepted. That is, poor provinces grow faster than the rich. The income per capita and growth are positively related to net migration rate. Expectedly, the new coming people to a province would increase income per capita and growth. The estimated coefficient of the spatial lag of the dependent variable is statistically significant and demonstrates spatial dependence in income as well as economic growth among the provinces of Iran. Every province’s growth rate was positively impacted by the economic growth of its neighbors. However, net migration has no spatial effect on income per capita and growth. In other words, the regional economic growth has not been influenced by migration to neighboring provinces.

Keywords: Neoclassical growth model, convergence, migration, spatial Durbin model, spatial generalized method of moments.

JEL classification: O47, C23, R23
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