Tag: O4

SAVINGS AND ECONOMIC DISASTERS: GLOBAL EVIDENCE

Vladimir ŠIMIĆ

Faculty of Economics, Business and Tourism Split, University of Split; Croatia, Full professor

vsimic@efst.hr

Bruno ĆORIĆ

Faculty of Economics, Business and Tourism Split, University of Split; Croatia, Full professor

bcoric@efst.hr

Abstract

In recent literature, economic disasters have shown promising potential to fill some important gaps in empirical research. The term economic disaster is used in the literature to identify particularly large economic crises, and Barro and Ursúa (2008, 2012) define it as a cumulative decline in output or consumption over one or more years of at least 10 percent. The contribution of economic disasters has been recognized in a number of phenomena ranging from those of finance to those of traditional macroeconomic analysis related to investment and output. Using the recently updated and expanded Ćorić (2021) database on economic disasters, this paper re-examines the impact of economic disasters on saving. Early studies suggest that theoretically negative effects are to be expected. However, more recent empirical research by Aizenman and Noy (2015) shows that economic disasters increase the savings rate. This result implies that the predominant effect of uncertainty related to economic disasters is to increase precautionary saving, which is in contrast to previous findings in the literature. The present study therefore aims to investigate this discrepancy in the results by providing new empirical evidence based on the new database on economic disasters. This database covers a much larger number of countries and thus provides new insights into the relationship between economic disasters and saving from a global perspective. Using a sample of 169 countries, both developed and less developed, since 1980, this study finds that economic disasters have a positive effect on saving and that the effect is statistically significant.

Keywords: Saving, Economic disasters, Global evidence

JEL classification: C5, E2, O4

Acknowledgment: This article was supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project IP-2020-02-9710.

pp. 25-35

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TOURISM AND THE CHAOTIC ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL: THE ASEAN COUNTRIES

Vesna  JABLANOVIC

Professor of Economics, University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture

vesnaj@agrif.bg.ac.rs

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to analyze the tourism total contribution to GDP growth stability in Brunel Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Philippines in the period 2010-2019. Four members of ASEAN were excluded due to a lack of data. This paper applies the chaos theory and creates the model. Also, this paper confirms the existence of the growth stability of the tourism total contribution to GDP in the observed countries in the observed period.

Keywords: Tourism Total Contribution to GDP, ASEAN, Growth, Stability, Chaos,

JEL classification: Z3, C2, O4, E22,

 pp. 103-110

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FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION AND GROWTH REVISITED – INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL EVIDENCE

Vladimir ŠIMIĆ

Faculty of Economics, Business and Tourism Split, University of Split; Croatia, Associate professor, and CERGE-EI Teaching Fellow

vsimic@efst.hr

Abstract

The effects of financial globalization on economic growth have been put in focus by a more recent branch of globalization literature. In academic circles and international policy arena a strong push towards capital openness and free movement of capital across borders had been seen during the 1990s. While the early arguments suggested positive effects of financial globalization on economic growth, more recently, both theoretical and empirical studies have started seriously questioning this benign view of financial globalization calling for additional evidence. This paper revisits the link between financial globalization and growth using the KOF index of globalization in a sample of 134 world economies in the period 1970-2015. With a large number of countries and application of the panel data estimations techniques this paper provides strong evidence on the link between financial globalization and economic growth. In the broad sample of world economies financial globalization exerts a negative and statistically significant effects on economic growth. The paper also investigates this relationship in the regions of East Asia and Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe and Central Asia and the negative effects are also predominant in the regional grouping of countries.

Keywords: Financial globalization, Growth, International evidence

JEL classification: F4, F6, O4

pp. 43-55

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