A MODEL FOR THE JOB DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BASED ON TIME SERIES

Zhanna PETUKHOVA

Professor, Department of Economics, Management and Organization of Production, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

zh-petukhova@ust-hk.com.cn

Mikhail PETUKHOV

Associate Professor, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

mpetukhov@nanyang-uni.com

Igor BELYAEV

Senior Lecturer, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

 belyaev@lund-univer.eu

Lyudmila BODRYAKOVA

Associate Professor, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

 ln-bodryakova@lund-univer.eu

Abstract

The Russian Federation is the largest country in the world, whose territory includes the Arctic regions. The area of the land territories of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is approximately 3.700,000 km2. The population of the Arctic Zone of Russia is approximately 7 million people, which is equal to 5% of the population of the entire Russian Federation. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyse regression models for predicting the time series of the number of jobs in the labour market of the Russian Federation, to select an adequate model characterised by a minimum average relative error and a maximum lead time, or to select several adequate models for different forecasting periods: short-term, medium-term and long-term. The study examines the possibilities of predicting the situation in the labour market of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation, the demand for specialists in various industries using regression models for forecasting a time series. The simulation was performed using the Statistica software. As a result of the conducted studies, adequate forecasting models were obtained in the time period from 01.01.2020 to 01.01.2021, taking into account the epidemiological situation in the country. Thus, the best model with the smallest error was determined.

Keywords: labour market, regression models, education, autocorrelation function, autoregression.

JEL classification: I15, J11, J01

 pp. 291-298

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CHANGES IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY: SCENARIOS OF COUNTER-URBANIZATION IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS

Evgenia ANASTASIOU

Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Thessaly

evanastasiou@uth.gr

Abstract

The last decade economic developments affected to a large extend the demographic structure of Greece. The period 2001-2011 is characterized by a net slowdown of the intense urbanization trend, while in the context of crisis there have been identified counter-urban trends, revealing new attractiveness zones in the rural areas. These indications of mobility do not concern entirely the countryside as the newcomers settle only in specific rural spatial units. At the same time these areas have specific features that facilitate the establishment of a new population, such as population dynamics, tourism development, agricultural activity, services and structures, reduction of geographical isolation, low cost of living and habitation. The future of internal migration in Greece heavily depends on existing trends as well as future economic, social and political developments. Though, the lack of official data for the period after 2011 constrains our understanding for the development of internal migration and particularly counter-urban trends in Greece. The present paper raises the issue of the prospects of the establishment of the Greek population in the countryside, taking into account the pull factors of rural areas. Through Foresight and Strategic Thinking Methods, a longer-term framework is being developed to reflect the potential strategic choices of the internal migrants. This approach is based on a mainly qualitative analysis, scenario planning, in order to present the prerequisites for the further development of such a type of mobility.

Keywords: foresight, scenario planning, internal migration, population, countryside

JEL classification: J1, J6, J11, R23

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