Spatial disparities – Regional Science Inquiry

Vinko MUŠTRA

Full professor, Faculty of Economics, Business and Tourism, University of Split, Croatia

vmustra@efstr.hr

Abstract

This paper examines the long-term dynamics of local development traps in Croatia, a small and open EU economy that experienced profound structural shocks between 2006 and 2022, including the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic and EU accession in 2013. The concept of the development trap has recently gained prominence in the literature, identifying territories that struggle to sustain economic dynamism relative to national and European peers (Iammarino et al., 2020; Diemer et al., 2022; Rodríguez-Pose et al., 2024). While previous research has highlighted the structural and institutional underpinnings of such traps, less attention has been devoted to the different development paths of local sub-national unites in small and open economies. Using a unique dataset covering all 556 Croatian municipalities and towns for 4 three-year periods from 2006 till 2022., this study applies a standardized, multi-period framework to identify two forms of development traps: (1) a stable trap reflecting persistent positioning within the same income decile (DT1) and (2) a downward trajectory trap marked by monotonic decline in standardized income (DT2). A key finding is that development traps vary heterogeneously even within the same county-level units, underscoring the importance of fine-grained territorial perspective. The results also reveal strong path dependence substantial spatial rigidity and pronounced territorial polarization between coastal and continental areas. DT1 and DT2 are not evenly distributed, suggesting differentiated structural vulnerabilities across counties. By providing new evidence from a small EU economy like Croatia, the paper offers a nuanced operationalization of development traps and highlights the need for targeted, place-sensitive policies aimed at reversing entrenched disparities and preventing further territorial divergence.

Keywords: Local development traps, Income dynamics, path dependence, spatial disparities, Croatia

JEL classification: R11, R12, O18,

pp. 79-92

Anastasia BISKA

PhD Candidate, National Technical University of Athens, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, Department of Geography and Regional Planning, Iroon Polytechniou 9, Campus Zografou, 15780 Athens, Greece, Tel.: +30 210 7722756, E-mail: abiska@survey.ntua.gr

and

Maria GIAOUTZI

Professor, National Technical University of Athens, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, Department of Geography and Regional Planning, Iroon Polytechniou 9, Campus Zografou,15780 Athens, Greece, Tel.: +30 210 7722749, E-mail: giaoutsi@central.ntua.gr

Abstract

Energy poverty is intensely debated lately, mainly at the political level, both in the developed and developing world. The concept of energy poverty refers to issues such as lack of the necessary infrastructure that prevents citizens from having access to various sources of energy.

In the Mediterranean region, there is a divergence among countries, regarding both the energy poverty patterns and the related policy framework. Apparent differences also appear between the EU countries and non-EU countries, concerning the existing infrastructure, the energy demand, the availability of natural resources and energy sources and the related policy measures.

The aim of this paper is to develop a typology of the energy poverty patterns in the Mediterranean countries and elaborate on the prospects for policy measures.

The first part provides the definition of energy poverty and the patterns appearing in the Mediterranean region. The second part presents data issues on the energy consumption and production patterns in the study region. In the third part, the available data and their sources are presented, while the fourth part presents the methodological framework and the tools used in a clustering exercise in order to identify groups of countries with similar characteristics which may be addressed by a common set of policies. The clustering process consists of two separate parts, one including all the Mediterranean countries and a second clustering separately the EU and the non-EU countries in order to identify differences among the two clusters. The fifth part presents the results of the clustering process and the visualization of the new typologies. Finally, in the sixth part, follows a set of conclusions drawn from the resulting typologies, but also the prospects for policy action in the Mediterranean region.