Inna MANAEVA
Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of World Economy, Belgorod State National Research University, Russia, http://www.bsu.edu.ru
In.manaeva@yandex.ru
Angela SHVETSOVA
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of World Economy, http://www.bsu.edu.ru
mikhajjlovaangela@yandex.ru
Abstract
Research on the adaptation of economic growth dynamics to climate change is important for sustainable development on local to global scales. It is important to quantify the balance between two interrelated systems to generate effective knowledge to create a favorable environment in conditions of rapid economic development. The purpose of the work is to develop and test a methodology for assessing the adaptation of regional economic growth to climate change in the regions of the Russian Federation. The author’s methodology is based on obtaining the coefficient of adaptation (KA) of economic growth to climate change in the regions of the Russian Federation. The analysis of the autocorrelation КА of the spacecraft within the borders of the federal districts by calculating the global and local Moran’s index makes it possible to determine the similarities and differences of the adaptation process in neighboring regions. The following indicators were identified for the study: a) economic sphere: GRP per capita, industrial production index, real monetary incomes of the population, the volume of investments in fixed assets per capita; b) climate: average annual air temperature, the amount of precipitation. Information base: data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Weather and Climate portal. The object of research is the regions of the Central Federal District, the Southern Federal District and the Siberian Federal District. Study period: 2000, 2003, 2009-2021. Periods of decrease and growth of the coefficient of adaptation, a decrease in the differentiation of regions by the value of the KA empirically have been identified. The calculations performed demonstrate spatial heterogeneity. The indicators of the coefficient of adaptation in the southern regions and parts of the regions of central Russia are significantly higher, which indicates a more coordinated development in these regions. Regions demonstrating a relatively higher level of adaptation to economic growth and climate change have a more differentiated economy and a favorable geographical location. The results obtained can be used to develop and implement climate risk management policies and analyze the economic costs of climate change impacts.
Keywords: Region, Climate, Ecology, GRP, Communication coordination coefficient, Economic development, Air temperature, Precipitation, Moran’s index, Autocorrelation
JEL classification: R12
pp. 37-55