Tag: Unemployment

INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES: A PANEL GMM APPLICATION ON PHILLIPS CURVE

ALIASUDDIN

Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

aliasuddin@unsyiah.ac.id

Sofyan SYAHNUR

Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business,Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

kabari_sofyan@unsyiah.ac.id

MALIA

Graduate Student at the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

malia1980@mhs.unsyiah.ac.id

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between inflation and unemployment in 10 Southeast Asian from 1996 to 2016 using 210 data samples. The estimation results, using the GMM panel method, showed that the use of Instrument Variables (IV) is valid for the model and the results show a negative and significant relationship between inflation and unemployment. The optimal value of inflation and unemployment for the Southeast Asian Region were found to be 4 percent and 8 percent respectively. This means that a trade-off has taken place. Thus, the existence of the Phillips Curve in Southeast Asian countries during the period of 1996-2016 can be proven. In accordance with the Phillips Curve review, if the trade-off occurs, the government cannot resolve both problems simultaneously. In other words, policy makers must be able to choose the problem to be addressed first, either by implementing monetary policy, fiscal policy or both, so that economic stability and public welfare are maintained.

Keywords: Inflation, Unemployment, Phillips Curve, Panel GMM, Southeast Asia.

JEL classification: E24, E31, C23, J01

read more

LONG RUN RELATIONSHIPS AND SHORT RUN DYNAMICS AMONG UNEMPLOYMENT AND DEMAND COMPONENTS: A STUDY ON SRI LANKA, INDIA AND BANGLADESH

Ramesh CHANDRA DAS

Associate Professor of Economics, Katwa College, WB, India

ramesh051073@gmail.com

Kamal RAY

(Retd), Associate Professor of Economics, Katwa College, WB, India

kamal420ray@yahoo.co.in

Abstract

Unemployment of an economy should have some associations with its aggregate demand components. With time series data for 1996-2015 on three aggregate demand components, namely, consumption expenditure (CON), capital formation (GCF) and public spending (GOV), we did econometric exercises such as cointegration, VECM and Wald test to test whether there are long run equilibrium relationships among unemployment (UN) and the three demand components and directions of their interplays in long run and short run frameworks. Doing appropriate diagnostic checking for the residuals of all the estimations, the results show that all the four series are cointegrated that justifies long run associationships among them. Further, the long run causality analysis through VECM reveals that UN, CON and GCF make a cause to GOV for Sri Lanka.  For India, UN is caused by all three components of aggregate demand and its CON is caused by UN, GCF and GOV. Bangladesh does not produce any such long run causal relationships among the variables. Further for short run causality results, CON is caused by UN, GCF and GOV in Sri Lanka and India, and for Bangladesh and India, there are short run causalities running from CON, GCF and GOV to unemployment. This means, aggregate demand components in India and Bangladesh influence the unemployment rates of these two countries

Keywords: Unemployment, aggregate consumption, government expenses, gross capital formation, cointegration, VECM, Wald test

JEL classification: J64, E21, E22, E24, H5, C32
read more

ECONOMIC TRENDS OF THE YOUTH LABOR MARKET IN UZBEKISTAN

Kalandar ABDURAKHMANOV

PhD in Economics, Professor, Tashkent Branch of G.V. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

kalandar.abdurakhmanov1@gmail.com

Nodira ZOKIROVA

PhD in Economics, Professor, Tashkent Branch of G.V. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

Abstract

The relevance of the study, confirmed by the growing scientific interest in the topic of youth employment in the labor market, is increasing in the context of the new paradigm of innovative development of the national economy in Uzbekistan. The feasibility of studying the economic aspects of the youth labor market development is determined by the high birth rate and the growing unmet demand of the population for educational services. It is obvious that the problem of ensuring the affordability of quality higher education as the main factor in the employment of young people in Uzbekistan is complicated and multidimensional. It is important to explore trends, formulate ways to develop the youth labor market and create a system for monitoring the compliance of the educational market offer with the employers’ demands in the labor market. This article is aimed at assessing the current realities, predicting the prospects for the foreseeable future, justifying the ways and specific measures to create irreversible conditions for the convergence of science, education and the real economy in the labor market of Uzbekistan.

Keywords: Unemployment, labor market, youth, education, employment

JEL classification: J00, J01, J08, J2, J20, J4, J40, J6, J60, J7, J70, J8, J80
read more