Cristina LINCARUNational Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection – INCSMPS, Bucharest,, Romania firstname.lastname@example.org
Speranta PÎRCIOGScientific Manager, National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection – INCSMPS, Bucharest,, Romania email@example.com
Draga AtanasiuNational Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection – INCSMPS, Bucharest,, Romania firstname.lastname@example.org
Public Employment Services (PES) have to “react efficiently and effectively to unceasingly changing public and political demand” and also to cope successfully to the growing “competitive environment’s “demand. (Public Employment Services’ Contribution to EU 2020: PES 2020 Strategy Output Paper, 2013). One direction that allow PES to “enhancing labour market transparency and providing evidence to support policy design” is to fully exploit the informational potential provided by the registered unemployment indicator in a systemic way.
In Romania the registered unemployment administrative unit is AJOFM – County Agency for Employment and Training of the Labour Force (CAE) – the PES provider at NUTS 3 level, while the lowest administrative unit is represented by localities at LAU 2 / NUTS 5 level. The ANOFM – The National Employment Agency for Labour Force in short NEA implements the policies and strategies of Labour Ministry in the field of employment and training for the persons seeking a job. The following 4 dimensions of the unemployment risks, expressed through aggregate indices for: the level, seasonality (with 2 aggregate indices), of cohesion tendency and of the density of unemployment served to make a sketch for an System of Monitoring and Alert system of the Risk of Unemployment. The Unemployment risk for each county by 10 sub-indices (5 urban and 5 rural) by the 4 dimensions of the unemployment risk at county level is represented in radar graphs. The 10 scores for each county, are compared to scores obtained at national average and with the theoretical thresholds (maximum and minimum of the intermediary categorical scale) and finally all the counties are grouped by 4 cluster types in regard with the unemployment risk: Alarm, Alert, Balance, Low risk of unemployment and figured in Maps.
Keywords: unemployment risk, registered unemployment, local level, composite indicators, monitoring and alarm system