Month: June 2019

LONG RUN RELATIONSHIPS AND SHORT RUN DYNAMICS AMONG UNEMPLOYMENT AND DEMAND COMPONENTS: A STUDY ON SRI LANKA, INDIA AND BANGLADESH

Ramesh CHANDRA DAS

Associate Professor of Economics, Katwa College, WB, India

ramesh051073@gmail.com

Kamal RAY

(Retd), Associate Professor of Economics, Katwa College, WB, India

kamal420ray@yahoo.co.in

Abstract

Unemployment of an economy should have some associations with its aggregate demand components. With time series data for 1996-2015 on three aggregate demand components, namely, consumption expenditure (CON), capital formation (GCF) and public spending (GOV), we did econometric exercises such as cointegration, VECM and Wald test to test whether there are long run equilibrium relationships among unemployment (UN) and the three demand components and directions of their interplays in long run and short run frameworks. Doing appropriate diagnostic checking for the residuals of all the estimations, the results show that all the four series are cointegrated that justifies long run associationships among them. Further, the long run causality analysis through VECM reveals that UN, CON and GCF make a cause to GOV for Sri Lanka.  For India, UN is caused by all three components of aggregate demand and its CON is caused by UN, GCF and GOV. Bangladesh does not produce any such long run causal relationships among the variables. Further for short run causality results, CON is caused by UN, GCF and GOV in Sri Lanka and India, and for Bangladesh and India, there are short run causalities running from CON, GCF and GOV to unemployment. This means, aggregate demand components in India and Bangladesh influence the unemployment rates of these two countries

Keywords: Unemployment, aggregate consumption, government expenses, gross capital formation, cointegration, VECM, Wald test

JEL classification: J64, E21, E22, E24, H5, C32
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GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES COMPOSITION AND GROWTH IN EU15: A DYNAMIC HETEROGENEOUS APPROACH

Lena MALEŠEVIĆ PEROVIĆ

Associate professor University of Split, Faculty of Economics, Business and Tourism, CERGE EI Teaching Fellow Cvite Fiskovića 5, 21000 Split, Croatia, Tel: + 385 21 430 683, Fax: + 385 21 430 701

lena@efst.hr

Silvia GOLEM

Associate professor University of Split, Faculty of Economics, Business and Tourism, Cvite Fiskovića 5, 21000 Split, Croatia, Tel: + 385 21 430 673, Fax: + 385 21 430 701

sgolem@efst.hr

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to investigate the long-run effect of government size and composition on growth in EU15 countries during 1995-2014. Unlike previous studies, this paper employs a more adequate and sophisticated econometric technique which allows the joint occurrence of dynamics and parameter heterogeneity as well as addresses the problem of unobserved common factors. The obtained results indicate that high aggregate spending levels are an impediment for growth in developed economies, while the single most important government expenditure item is education. In quantitative terms the impact of education expenditures is, however, significantly lower than that found by other papers.

Keywords: government size, expenditures composition, GDP growth, heterogeneity, unobserved common effects, EU15

JEL classification: C23, H1, H50, O4
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AGGLOMERATION PROCESSES ON THE RUSSIAN EUROPEAN NORTH: VOLOGDA REGION EXPERIENCE

Sergey KOZHEVNIKOV

Candidate of Sciences (Economic), Senior Researcher head of laboratory, Vologda Research Center of the RAS, Russia

kozhevnikov_sa@bk.ru

Abstract

The article presents the key features of the development of urban agglomerations at presents. There are shown the agglomeration processes features which are currently taking place in the Vologda region.  It is justified that the monocentric Vologda agglomeration is being formed in the region. This is based on the research of the scientific literature, the main strategic documents and the use of the existing methodological tools. The tightness of the connection between the core and the reference territories has been proved on the basis of an analysis of key trends in the socioeconomic development of these municipalities in 1991-2016. On the basis of conducted sociological surveys of the inhabitants of Vologda and adjacent municipal districts, as well as heads of these municipalities, there were identified socio-economic, industrial, cultural and other links of these territories. There were identified the key challenges and threats for the further development of agglomeration processes and substantiated the priority directions for managing the development of the Vologda agglomeration.

Keywords: city, urban agglomeration, sociological survey

JEL classification: R12
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