Month: July 2018

SMEs’ CREDIT DEMAND AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA

M. Shabri ABD. MAJID

Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Syiah Kuala Kuala University, Indonesia

mshabri@unsyiah.ac.id

HAMDANI

Financial Consultant for the SMEs and Bank’s Partner, Aceh Province, Indonesia, Graduate Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Syiah Kuala Kuala University, Indonesia

hamdani.aceh@gmail.com

Muhammad NASIR

Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Syiah Kuala Kuala University, Indonesia

nasirmsi@yahoo.com

FAISAL

Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Syiah Kuala Kuala University, Indonesia

faisal_nurmala@yahoo.com

Abstract

This study aims at empirically exploring the short- and long-run relationships between economic growth, non-performing loans, interest rates and the credit demand by the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Aceh province, Indonesia. The quarterly data for the period 1995 to 2015 were analyzed by the cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM). The study documented that there was a cointegration among the economic growth, non-performing loans, interest rates and the credit demand, implying the existence of long-run equilibrium among the variables. In addition, in short-run, the study found a unidirectional causality from economic growth to credit demand, a bidirectional causality between interest rates and credit demand, while no causality existed between non-performance loan and credit demand by the SMEs in Aceh, Indonesia. Thus, to enhance the SMEs, the government should focus on promoting the economic growth by managing the stability of interest rates in the province.

Keywords: Credit demand, Economic growth, Non-performing loan, SMEs.

JEL classification: C22, E59, O49, H81
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SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: HOW WOULD IT AFFECT THE COUNTRY’S FOREIGN TRADE?

Lucie COUFALOVÁ

Specialist, Faculty of Business and Administration, Masaryk University, Czech Republic

174064@mail.muni.cz

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify the main determinants of Scotland’s foreign trade and, above all, the EU’s role in the volume of the country’s exports, as its EU membership is one of the key arguments in the political discourse about independence. The article highlights the results of opinion polls in the country, as well as the relationship between economic integration and political disintegration. The methodological approach adopted is the gravity model of international trade. Given the large number of zero flows present in the data sample, the Tobit model proved to be a more suitable technique for the estimation. The Random effects model estimates are also provided in order to prove the robustness of the estimates. The results of the study allow for more substantiated conclusions about the main determinants of Scotland’s foreign trade, as well as they provide arguments for discussing the implications of Scottish independence.

Keywords: Scotland, independence, European Union, international trade, gravity model

JEL classification: F13, F47, F15, R15

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METHODOLOGY OF INVESTMENT CYCLE ANALYSIS IN THE REGIONAL ECONOMY: TERRITORIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ASPECTS

Oksana BUTORINA

Associate Professor, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Russia

sci.publ@gmail.com

Matvey OBORIN

Associate Professor, Perm Branch of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Perm State National Research University, Perm State Agro-Technological University named after Academician D.N. Pryanishnikov, Russia

Galina KUTERGINA

Associate Professor, Perm State National Research University, Perm, Russia

Mariya OSIPOVA

Assistant, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Russia

Abstract

The paper gives a brief description of the recurrent approach to the study of modern macroeconomic processes. It defines the role of investment processes in the modern macroeconomic cycle. The authors’ interpretation of the investment cycle as a structural component of progressive macroeconomic development is characterized by repeatability in time (periodicity); sequential change of stages; the presence of recurrent dependencies, determination character (determines the current basic trends). The justification of the investment cycle features on the basis of the recurrent approach made it possible to determine the features of the statistical analysis of the current investment cycle within the framework of the modern macrocycle. Such an analysis is a multi-level and multi-spectral study of the dynamics of investment activity indicators in the regional economy. It is based on a process approach that involves the systematization of relevant indicators and their phase-by-phase characteristics, including the territorial aspect of the study, which allows to identify general and particular dependencies within investment processes in each group of regions and/or in a specific region, as well as the sectoral aspect of the study, aimed at assessing the quality and efficiency of investment in the economy of the region on the basis of comparison of dynamics of real investment in foreign trade. A variety of different approaches and aspects of statistical analysis can contribute to a comprehensive study of the features of the current investment cycle.

Keywords: Macroeconomic cycle, recurrent approach, investment cycle, process approach

JEL classification: D51
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