SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: HOW WOULD IT AFFECT THE COUNTRY’S FOREIGN TRADE?

Lucie COUFALOVÁ

Specialist, Faculty of Business and Administration, Masaryk University, Czech Republic

174064@mail.muni.cz

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify the main determinants of Scotland’s foreign trade and, above all, the EU’s role in the volume of the country’s exports, as its EU membership is one of the key arguments in the political discourse about independence. The article highlights the results of opinion polls in the country, as well as the relationship between economic integration and political disintegration. The methodological approach adopted is the gravity model of international trade. Given the large number of zero flows present in the data sample, the Tobit model proved to be a more suitable technique for the estimation. The Random effects model estimates are also provided in order to prove the robustness of the estimates. The results of the study allow for more substantiated conclusions about the main determinants of Scotland’s foreign trade, as well as they provide arguments for discussing the implications of Scottish independence.

Keywords: Scotland, independence, European Union, international trade, gravity model

JEL classification: F13, F47, F15, R15

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METHODOLOGY OF INVESTMENT CYCLE ANALYSIS IN THE REGIONAL ECONOMY: TERRITORIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ASPECTS

Oksana BUTORINA

Associate Professor, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Russia

sci.publ@gmail.com

Matvey OBORIN

Associate Professor, Perm Branch of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Perm State National Research University, Perm State Agro-Technological University named after Academician D.N. Pryanishnikov, Russia

Galina KUTERGINA

Associate Professor, Perm State National Research University, Perm, Russia

Mariya OSIPOVA

Assistant, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Russia

Abstract

The paper gives a brief description of the recurrent approach to the study of modern macroeconomic processes. It defines the role of investment processes in the modern macroeconomic cycle. The authors’ interpretation of the investment cycle as a structural component of progressive macroeconomic development is characterized by repeatability in time (periodicity); sequential change of stages; the presence of recurrent dependencies, determination character (determines the current basic trends). The justification of the investment cycle features on the basis of the recurrent approach made it possible to determine the features of the statistical analysis of the current investment cycle within the framework of the modern macrocycle. Such an analysis is a multi-level and multi-spectral study of the dynamics of investment activity indicators in the regional economy. It is based on a process approach that involves the systematization of relevant indicators and their phase-by-phase characteristics, including the territorial aspect of the study, which allows to identify general and particular dependencies within investment processes in each group of regions and/or in a specific region, as well as the sectoral aspect of the study, aimed at assessing the quality and efficiency of investment in the economy of the region on the basis of comparison of dynamics of real investment in foreign trade. A variety of different approaches and aspects of statistical analysis can contribute to a comprehensive study of the features of the current investment cycle.

Keywords: Macroeconomic cycle, recurrent approach, investment cycle, process approach

JEL classification: D51
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METHODOLOGICAL AND PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF HUMAN POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT IN THE REGION

Marina Gennadyevna FEDOTOVA

Associate Professor, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

mgfedotova@yandex.ru

Anastasia Viktоrovna  ZHIGLYAEVA

4th – year student, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

anastasia.zhiglyaeva@gmail.com

Elena Valentinovna STOLYAROVA

Associate Professor, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

mgfedotova@yandex.ru

Abstract

Human potential is the main factor, a key aspect of the socio-economic development of the region. The article presents a systematic approach to the management of the human potential of the region, which is distinguished by its novelty and based on modern methods of system analysis, management and regional economy. In the course of the study, a model for managing the human potential of the region is formed, based on a system with a closed loop, consisting of a number of simpler functional subsystems. The structure and the mechanism for managing the human potential of the region based on the proposed conceptual model are substantiated.  The scientifically grounded proposals and recommendations on the formation, use of the system at the regional level are presented. A system of indicators for the integrated assessment of the human potential of the region has been developed in linking them to strategic development guidelines.  In total, eight fundamental quantitative indicators have been identified. Based on these indicators, the integral indicator (the level of the human potential of the region) is calculated. Using the formed system of indicators makes it possible to assess the magnitude of human potential, the effectiveness of the proposed management model.  In addition, it is planned to monitor the dynamics of indicators, conduct interregional comparisons. Approbation of methodological tools was carried out on the example of Oryol region, Russia (2010-2015).  Priority directions of development of human potential in Oryol region are determined and some recommendations for their implementation are given.

Keywords: human potential, structural components, Oryol region, priority directions

JEL classification:
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