Tag: R23

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON REGIONAL GROWTH IN IRAN (2006-16)

Shekoofeh FARAHMAND

Associate Professor, Economics Department, University of Isfahan, Iran

sh.farahmand@ase.ui.ac.ir

Narges GHASEMIAN

Ph.D candidate of economics, Alzahra University of Tehran, Iran

N.Ghasemian@alzahra.ac.ir

Abstract

One of the most important applications of economic growth models is for regional economic growth. In regional growth studies, it is necessary to consider spatial effects because of spatial dependence among the growth rates of regions. This research investigates the impact between net migration and its spatial lag on regional growth, based on the neoclassical (Solow) growth model. The used model in the study is the Dynamic Panel Data (DPD) which has been specified as a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and estimated by the spatial generalized method of moments (SGMM). The specified model has been tested for the 30 provinces of Iran in the period of 2006-16. The estimated results show that the time-lagged dependent variable had a positive and highly significant effect on income per capita. The impact of initial income per capita on growth is negative, and the convergence hypothesis is thus accepted. That is, poor provinces grow faster than the rich. The income per capita and growth are positively related to net migration rate. Expectedly, the new coming people to a province would increase income per capita and growth. The estimated coefficient of the spatial lag of the dependent variable is statistically significant and demonstrates spatial dependence in income as well as economic growth among the provinces of Iran. Every province’s growth rate was positively impacted by the economic growth of its neighbors. However, net migration has no spatial effect on income per capita and growth. In other words, the regional economic growth has not been influenced by migration to neighboring provinces.

Keywords: Neoclassical growth model, convergence, migration, spatial Durbin model, spatial generalized method of moments.

JEL classification: O47, C23, R23
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REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS IN TURKEY

Hasan ENGIN DURAN

Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning Department, Associate Professor of Economics, Gülbahce Kampüsü, Izmir Yüksek Teknoloji Ensitüsü, Mimarlık Fakültesi, Şehir ve bölge Planlama Bölümü, Urla-Izmir,  Tel: +90 232 750 70 66

enginduran@iyte.edu.tr

Abstract

Aim of the study is to investigate region specific causes of unemployment for Turkish 26 Nuts-2 regions between 2004-2017. We aim at contributing to the literature by analyzing (i) whether regional unemployment and sub-groups (with respect to gender, age, education) is driven by excessive labor supply or shortage of labor demand, (ii) which sub-groups have higher unemployment in regions. In terms of methodology, we employ descriptive and exploratory analyses, spatial tests and panel regressions. Our findings indicate three main results: First, there is a sizable difference in unemployment rates across regions and the dispersion is getting stronger over time. Second, there are extremely low and high unemployment rates in various sub-groups and regions. Third, changes in unemployment is mostly driven by changes in labor supply rather than demand. Among the 208 cases (26 regions x 8 sub-groups), in 154 cases, the major driver of unemployment is the excessive labor supply.

Keywords: Regional Unemployment, Labor Supply, Panel Data Regression

JEL classification: R11, R23, R12
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THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF REGIONAL MINIMUM WAGEs: A CROSS-PROVINCE DATA EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

Khairul AMRI

Ph.D Student in Economic Science, Faculty of Economic and Business Syiah Kuala University Banda Aceh, Indonesia, Lecture in Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University Ar-Raniry, Banda Aceh Indonesia

khairul.amri@ar-raniry.ac.id

Abstract

The main purpose of our study is to determine the causality relationship between economic growth, regional minimum wages (RMWs), unemployment rate and labor force participation rate (LFP). Using cross-section data set of 27 provinces from Indonesia for the period of 2003-2015, data analyzed using panel co-integration test, panel vector error correction model, and Granger causality test. Panel co-integration test indicates that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. In the long-run, LFP positively related to the economic growth, and negatively related to RMWs. The unemployment is positively related to both the economic growth and RMWs. In the short-run, RMWS has a significant and positive effect on economic growth. The unemployment and LFP have a negative and significant effect on RMWs. LFP has a negative and significant effect on unemployment and RMWs has a positive and significant effect on LFP. Furthermore, economic growth has a negative and significant effect on LFP. The result of Granger causality test points out that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and RMWs and between RMWs and LFP. In addition, unemployment rate causes RMWs, and LFP causes unemployment.

Keywords: Economic growth, regional minimum wages, labor force participation, unemployment and panel vector error correction model

JEL classification: J31, O4, R23
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