Tag: R23

CHANGES IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY: SCENARIOS OF COUNTER-URBANIZATION IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS

Evgenia ANASTASIOU

Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Thessaly

evanastasiou@uth.gr

Abstract

The last decade economic developments affected to a large extend the demographic structure of Greece. The period 2001-2011 is characterized by a net slowdown of the intense urbanization trend, while in the context of crisis there have been identified counter-urban trends, revealing new attractiveness zones in the rural areas. These indications of mobility do not concern entirely the countryside as the newcomers settle only in specific rural spatial units. At the same time these areas have specific features that facilitate the establishment of a new population, such as population dynamics, tourism development, agricultural activity, services and structures, reduction of geographical isolation, low cost of living and habitation. The future of internal migration in Greece heavily depends on existing trends as well as future economic, social and political developments. Though, the lack of official data for the period after 2011 constrains our understanding for the development of internal migration and particularly counter-urban trends in Greece. The present paper raises the issue of the prospects of the establishment of the Greek population in the countryside, taking into account the pull factors of rural areas. Through Foresight and Strategic Thinking Methods, a longer-term framework is being developed to reflect the potential strategic choices of the internal migrants. This approach is based on a mainly qualitative analysis, scenario planning, in order to present the prerequisites for the further development of such a type of mobility.

Keywords: foresight, scenario planning, internal migration, population, countryside

JEL classification: J1, J6, J11, R23

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SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON REGIONAL GROWTH IN IRAN (2006-16)

Shekoofeh FARAHMAND

Associate Professor, Economics Department, University of Isfahan, Iran

sh.farahmand@ase.ui.ac.ir

Narges GHASEMIAN

Ph.D candidate of economics, Alzahra University of Tehran, Iran

N.Ghasemian@alzahra.ac.ir

Abstract

One of the most important applications of economic growth models is for regional economic growth. In regional growth studies, it is necessary to consider spatial effects because of spatial dependence among the growth rates of regions. This research investigates the impact between net migration and its spatial lag on regional growth, based on the neoclassical (Solow) growth model. The used model in the study is the Dynamic Panel Data (DPD) which has been specified as a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and estimated by the spatial generalized method of moments (SGMM). The specified model has been tested for the 30 provinces of Iran in the period of 2006-16. The estimated results show that the time-lagged dependent variable had a positive and highly significant effect on income per capita. The impact of initial income per capita on growth is negative, and the convergence hypothesis is thus accepted. That is, poor provinces grow faster than the rich. The income per capita and growth are positively related to net migration rate. Expectedly, the new coming people to a province would increase income per capita and growth. The estimated coefficient of the spatial lag of the dependent variable is statistically significant and demonstrates spatial dependence in income as well as economic growth among the provinces of Iran. Every province’s growth rate was positively impacted by the economic growth of its neighbors. However, net migration has no spatial effect on income per capita and growth. In other words, the regional economic growth has not been influenced by migration to neighboring provinces.

Keywords: Neoclassical growth model, convergence, migration, spatial Durbin model, spatial generalized method of moments.

JEL classification: O47, C23, R23
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REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS IN TURKEY

Hasan ENGIN DURAN

Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning Department, Associate Professor of Economics, Gülbahce Kampüsü, Izmir Yüksek Teknoloji Ensitüsü, Mimarlık Fakültesi, Şehir ve bölge Planlama Bölümü, Urla-Izmir,  Tel: +90 232 750 70 66

enginduran@iyte.edu.tr

Abstract

Aim of the study is to investigate region specific causes of unemployment for Turkish 26 Nuts-2 regions between 2004-2017. We aim at contributing to the literature by analyzing (i) whether regional unemployment and sub-groups (with respect to gender, age, education) is driven by excessive labor supply or shortage of labor demand, (ii) which sub-groups have higher unemployment in regions. In terms of methodology, we employ descriptive and exploratory analyses, spatial tests and panel regressions. Our findings indicate three main results: First, there is a sizable difference in unemployment rates across regions and the dispersion is getting stronger over time. Second, there are extremely low and high unemployment rates in various sub-groups and regions. Third, changes in unemployment is mostly driven by changes in labor supply rather than demand. Among the 208 cases (26 regions x 8 sub-groups), in 154 cases, the major driver of unemployment is the excessive labor supply.

Keywords: Regional Unemployment, Labor Supply, Panel Data Regression

JEL classification: R11, R23, R12
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