EFFECT OF COMMODITY PRICES ON INFLATION PERSISTENCE: PARTIAL ADJUSTMENT APPROACH

SURIANI

Department of Islamic Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

suriani@unsyiah.ac.id

Fuad RIDZQI

Department of Development of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

fuadrizqi@rocketmail.com

Abstract

The objective of this study is to measure the inflation persistence level in Aceh Province. By using the autoregressive model, the level of persistence counted in general and the level of inflation persistence of commodity groups counted from forming consumer price index (CPI). In addition, this study also explores the source of inflation pressure from these commodity groups by using a partial adjustment model (Partial Adjustment Model). The observation period is the year 2005-2014 using monthly data. The results of this study found that the inflation persistence rate in Aceh Province was relatively low. However, there are several inflation rate variables for CPI commodity groups that exceed the inflation persistence level in common. The source of inflationary pressure discovered also comes from two variables with relatively high persistence levels from other variables, namely foodstuff commodity group variables (BM) and housing, water, electricity, gas, fuel (PERAL) commodity groups. These variables represent the components of inflation of volatile foods and administered price inflation. This study provides recommendations to relevant policymaker in coordinating, preventing, and overcoming the effects of volatile foods and administered prices on inflation by maintaining the supply of goods (supply stock) and regulating prices that are in line with people’s purchasing power

Keywords: Inflation Persistence, Autoregressive, Commodity Prices

JEL classification: C22, E31, E52
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DETERMINATION OF DEGREE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE REGIONAL SCIENTIFIC ENVIRONMENT ON THE PERFORMANCE OF SCIENTIFIC ORGANIZATIONS

Anna MALTSEVA

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Director of Lurye Scientific and Methodological Center for Higher School Innovative Activity, Tver State University, Tver, Russian Federation

80179@list.ru

Igor MONAKHOV

Candidate of historical Sciences, vice-Director of Lurye Scientific and Methodological Center for Higher School Innovative Activity, Tver State University, Tver, Russian Federation

monakhov_i@mail.ru

Igor VESELOV

Candidate of chemical sciences, Senior researcher in Lurye Scientific and Methodological Center for Higher School Innovative Activity, Tver State University, Tver, Russian Federation

igor.veselov@mail.ru

Aleksandra GRIDCHINA

Professor, Department of Public administration and law, Moscow Polytechnic University, Moscow, Russian Federation

gav70@bk.ru

Yuliya ALEKSAKHINA

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Department of Public administration and law, Moscow Polytechnic University, Moscow, Russian Federation

aleksahina@yandex.ru

Elena GORSHKOVA

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Department of Public administration and law, Moscow Polytechnic University, Moscow, Russian Federation

drug73@gmail.ru

Abstract

The article analyzes the influence of various factors of the regional scientific environment on the performance of scientific organizations. 541 research institutions located on the territory of 65 Russian Federation’ subjects were selected as the study’s object. The study used the statistical data of the Federal Monitoring System of Scientific Organizations (FMSSO), Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Justice and other open sources. The indicators proposed in the methodology of the FMSSO were used as indexes of scientific organizations performance. According the methodology three types of scientific organizations were distinguished – scientific organizations-leaders; stable scientific organizations that demonstrate satisfactory performance; and scientific organizations that have lost their scientific profile and development prospects. Data analysis showed that performance of scientific organizations is greatly influenced by such factors as a set of material, technical and financial conditions of the development of scientific activity.

Keywords: regional scientific environment, scientific organization, factor analysis, performance of scientific activity

JEL classification: R19
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DOES INDONESIA AS THE WORLD LARGEST PALM OIL PRODUCING COUNTRY DETERMINE THE WORLD CRUDE PALM OIL PRICE VOLATILITY?

M. Shabri Abd. MAJID*

Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Indonesia.

mshabri@unsyiah.ac.id

*Corresponding author

Sofyan SYAHNUR

Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Indonesia

kabari_sofyan@unsyiah.ac.id

Abstract

This study contributes to the existing literature on the current phenomena of a higher level of world palm oil volatility by exploring the bivariate causal relationship between Indonesian and Malaysian CPO exports, the world crude and soybean oils, exchange rate, and the world CPO price volatility using the bivariate Granger causality analysis. It also attempts to explore the extent to which shocks in these variables influenced the world CPO price volatility using the impulse response functions and variance decomposition analyses over the period from January 2008 to December 2017. The study found that the world CPO price volatility is mainly Granger-caused by the changes in the real exchange rate. The Indonesian CPO export only found to have a bidirectional Granger causal relationship with the Malaysian CPO export, while the Malaysian CPO exports are Granger-caused by the world CPO price volatility, world crude oil price, and world soybean oil price. Our findings suggested that macroeconomic policy harmonization on the CPO price and production as well as exchange rate policy should be innovatively designed between Indonesia and Malaysia through the existing Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC) if these counties intend to gain more revenue from their CPO exports in the future.

Keywords: Dynamic causality, World CPO price volatility, World commodity markets, Macroeconomic policy harmonization, International CPO trade

JEL classification: C53, F42, L13, Q17, Q37
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